Wisconsin (+6) @ Michigan State (-6); Total set at 116.5
Both of these teams are known for their defense as tonight it will be the team that executes better on that end of the floor that is most likely to come away with the victory. They met in Wisconsin in early January this year with an eerily similar line (Michigan State +6.5; 116.5) and the Spartans came away with the upset victory, 63-60, but needed overtime to do it. That meeting was basically determined by the fact that Michigan State had more turnovers and opportunities and took advantage of them. The Spartans had six more shot attempts, made six more baskets and escaped with the victory. If Wisconsin wants to exact some revenge they will have to find ways to limit second-chance opportunities the other way.
Michigan State also dominated on the glass (a staple for Tom Izzo teams) with 11 more rebounds overall, and it is those little victories that ultimately turn the game one way or another. They have been winning those battles on a nightly basis of late, winning three straight games SU and ATS, having out rebounded each opponent along the way. The biggest win for Michigan State was their 10-point stomping of top-5 ranked Ohio State last time out, in Ohio State no less, being the first to knock off the Buckeyes in their own building this year. That win makes it three straight by double-digit margins and while the word “let-down” may apply very strongly tonight, you have got to believe that if there ever was a coach that would have is team mentally prepared for another tough game it would be Izzo. The Spartans are 6-0 ATS in their last six at home, are 7-2 ATS when coming off a SU win and are 5-1 ATS at home vs. the Badgers the past few years. So what could possibly go wrong for them tonight?
Revenge is one thing as the Badgers are no slouch of a team to overlook. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as road dogs and had covered three straight times against the Spartans before that loss earlier this year. Coach Bo Ryan has been around for numerous years and will have his team amped up to avenge that earlier loss. Two of the past three meetings have needed an extra frame and with no reason to think that tonight’s game will be any different, six points is a lot to give up. The Badgers have only lost once SU in their last eight contests and that was to the aforementioned Ohio State squad. Defensively, they are statistically better than the Spartans, allowing only 50.3 points per game and could slow the pace down to a crawl to take the home crowd out of it.
This game will be close throughout, and Wisconsin could even escape with the SU win. You have got to take the points in this spot.
Take Wisconsin plus the points tonight.
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